Macrovision Research Workbench · 60-month reconstruction
The Macrovision Research Workbench compares the June 2026 United States and euro-area readings with a history reconstructed under a single current method. It measures configuration recurrence, distributional rank, band persistence, regional divergence and distance from declared thresholds across 360 frozen observations. The workbench is longitudinal descriptive research—not a point-in-time record, a forecast or an authorised Macrovision Monthly edition.
Longitudinal findings · July 2021–June 2026
These findings describe recurrence and persistence across the reconstructed record. They are not a current decision assessment, probability estimate or forecast.
State recurrence
The United States is Expansionary in 51 of 60 months and has remained there for 21 consecutive months. The euro area is Expansionary in 47 months and has remained there for 6 consecutive months.
Fragility persistence
Euro-area Revision Fragility Index (RFI) is in Watch for 50 of 60 months, including the final 32 months. United States RFI is in Watch for 5 months and entered its current Watch spell only at the June 2026 endpoint.
Evidence divergence
United States Lens Confidence exceeds the euro-area reading in 54 of 60 months and throughout the final 53 months. The June 2026 gap ranks at sample midrank percentile 97.5 and equals 95.4% of the largest observed gap.
Configuration recurrence
A regional configuration combines the governed bands for economic state, revision fragility and evidence confidence. Reconstructed occurrence records how often the same combination appears in these 60 months; it does not identify a new economic regime or estimate a probability.
| Region | June 2026 configuration | Reconstructed occurrence | Matching months | Endpoint persistence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Expansionary · Watch · Good. | 1 of 60 months. | June 2026. | 1 consecutive month at the endpoint. |
| Euro area | Expansionary · Watch · Provisional. | 3 of 60 months. | April 2026; May 2026; June 2026. | 3 consecutive months at the endpoint. |
Distributional position and band persistence
Sample midrank percentiles locate each value within its 60 reconstructed observations. Higher Macrovision Regime Score (MRS) is more expansionary; higher RFI indicates greater sensitivity to later data revisions; and Lens Confidence summarises input completeness and currency, not statistical confidence. Band occupancy and transitions describe classification persistence and reclassification frequency.
| Series | June 2026 reading and rank | Band occupancy | Endpoint band persistence | Band transitions | Largest 1-month changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macrovision Regime Score · United States | 63.00; sample midrank percentile 49.2; higher is more expansionary. | Expansionary 51/60 · Balanced 5/60 · Overheated 4/60. | Expansionary for 21 consecutive months. | 14 changes, equal to 23.7% of monthly intervals. | +13.00 in May 2022; −10.50 in August 2022. |
| Macrovision Regime Score · Euro area | 61.67; sample midrank percentile 45.0; higher is more expansionary. | Expansionary 47/60 · Balanced 7/60 · Overheated 6/60. | Expansionary for 6 consecutive months. | 18 changes, equal to 30.5% of monthly intervals. | +15.16 in December 2024; −17.33 in May 2025. |
| Revision Fragility Index · United States | 26.67; sample midrank percentile 97.5; the upper tail is adverse. | Stable 55/60 · Watch 5/60. | Watch for 1 consecutive month. | 9 changes, equal to 15.3% of monthly intervals. | +8.17 in March 2022; −7.89 in May 2022. |
| Revision Fragility Index · Euro area | 36.17; sample midrank percentile 95.8; the upper tail is adverse. | Watch 50/60 · Stable 10/60. | Watch for 32 consecutive months. | 16 changes, equal to 27.1% of monthly intervals. | +13.84 in September 2022; −8.61 in July 2025. |
| Lens Confidence · United States | 78.32; sample midrank percentile 0.8; the lower tail is weak. | Good 34/60 · High 26/60. | Good for 9 consecutive months. | 10 changes, equal to 16.9% of monthly intervals. | +3.51 in September 2025; −5.76 in October 2025. |
| Lens Confidence · Euro area | 64.31; sample midrank percentile 0.8; the lower tail is weak. | Good 53/60 · High 4/60 · Provisional 3/60. | Provisional for 3 consecutive months. | 7 changes, equal to 11.9% of monthly intervals. | +3.81 in August 2021; −5.02 in September 2022. |
Cross-region divergence
The comparison subtracts the euro-area reading from the United States reading. The absolute-gap sample midrank shows how unusual the size of the difference is within these 60 months. Higher-reading counts and switches show whether the difference is persistent or frequently reverses. “Higher” identifies numerical direction only: it is supportive for MRS and confidence, but adverse for RFI.
| Indicator | June 2026 difference | Absolute-gap sample rank | Higher-reading history | Higher-reading switches | Largest difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macrovision Regime Score | United States higher by 1.33 points. | Sample midrank percentile 12.5; 7.0% of the observed maximum. | United States higher in 32/60 months; euro area higher in 28/60; the current direction has persisted for 8 months. | The higher-reading region changed 26 times. | Euro area higher by 19.00 points in April 2023. |
| Revision Fragility Index | Euro area higher by 9.50 points. | Sample midrank percentile 67.5; 59.5% of the observed maximum. | United States higher in 2/60 months; euro area higher in 58/60; the current direction has persisted for 32 months. | The higher-reading region changed 4 times. | Euro area higher by 15.97 points in April 2026. |
| Lens Confidence | United States higher by 14.01 points. | Sample midrank percentile 97.5; 95.4% of the observed maximum. | United States higher in 54/60 months; euro area higher in 6/60; the current direction has persisted for 53 months. | The higher-reading region changed 2 times. | United States higher by 14.68 points in April 2026. |
Distance to governed thresholds
Threshold distance reports the index-point margin to the relevant declared band threshold. The normalised figure divides that margin by the median absolute monthly change. It compares magnitudes; it is not a breach probability, forecast or estimate of months to transition.
| Region | State margin above Expansionary | Fragility margin below Fragile | Confidence margin from Good |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 8.00 points, equal to 2.5 times the median absolute monthly change. | 23.33 points, equal to 9.1 times the median absolute monthly change. | 8.32 points above Good, equal to 8.6 times the median absolute monthly change. |
| Euro area | 6.67 points, equal to 1.3 times the median absolute monthly change. | 13.83 points, equal to 5.0 times the median absolute monthly change. | 5.69 points below Good, equal to 3.8 times the median absolute monthly change. |
Data coverage and reproducibility
The release contains a score for all 360 series-months across 6 complete paths and 60 shared monthly calculation hashes. The Revision Fragility Index endpoint for the euro area used 85.0% of eligible underlying inputs, the lowest current component coverage, so that reading warrants additional caution. Each hash covers all 6 series for one month; the release does not provide a separate replay hash for every observation.
| Release | Frozen on | Evidence record | Derived workbench | Representations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical-review-v0.2.0 | . | 360 observations; 6 series; 60 shared monthly calculation hashes. | macrovision-research-workbench-v1.0.0; sha256:255a878264d572b661bc7d590086d9c5c96249ee509daddc4a997d36cdf829a3. | HTML · JSON · CSV. |
Supported analysis
Configuration recurrence, sample rank, persistence, regional difference and threshold distance are deterministic derivatives of the frozen observations and declared bands.
Not supported by this release
The release contains 0 public driver records, no complete as-published vintages and no cutoff-valid prognosis.
Interpretation boundary
Sample rarity and threshold distance do not establish causation, future outcomes, hedgeability or a distinct investable exposure.
Related research and governance
Current indicators, reconstructed historical analysis, methodology and canonical publication status have separate authorities. Selecting the appropriate surface prevents a live signal, revised reconstruction or scheduled edition from being interpreted as the same record.
| Question | Authoritative surface | What the reader receives |
|---|---|---|
| What conditions are visible now? | Current indicators | Live source dates, freshness, confidence and the public Macrovision signal. |
| What does the 60-month reconstruction contain? | Complete historical study | Charts, findings, watch conditions and downloadable evidence from the frozen release. |
| How are conclusions defined and limited? | Methodology and limitations | Definitions, transformations, assumptions, publication rules and interpretation boundaries. |
| Has a canonical edition been authorised? | Publication status | The scheduled release, cutoff, approval state and publication receipt once issued. |
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