When is Macrovision Monthly published?

Macrovision Monthly follows a fixed publication date: the 22nd of each calendar month. The first canonical issue is scheduled for 22 August 2026 and remains unpublished until its evidence, methodology and approval controls are complete.

What does each canonical Macrovision Monthly edition contain?

Each canonical edition records its identity, cutoffs and status; an executive system reading; three ranked changes when a feasible set exists; conditional outlook; evidence quality and limitations; correction state; and links to complete dossiers.

Is the reconstructed decision context a canonical Macrovision Monthly edition?

No. The visible decision context is a content-addressed reconstruction derived from revised research data. The first canonical point-in-time edition remains scheduled and unpublished.

Macrovision Monthly · June 2026 reconstructed decision context

Expansionary classifications persist, but their support has weakened.

At the June 2026 reconstructed endpoint, the United States Macrovision Regime Score (MRS) was 63.00 and the euro-area MRS was 61.67, leaving both regions above the 55.00 Expansionary threshold. Over 3 months, all 6 monitored readings moved adversely: MRS declined, Revision Fragility Index (RFI) rose and Lens Confidence fell in both regions. The resulting descriptive posture is Expansionary with material evidence qualifications. The history applies the current method to revised data and is not an as-published record of what was knowable in each historical month. This non-canonical context is neither the August 2026 edition, a forecast nor investment advice.

Review the assessment View publication status Download context data

Interpretive framework

Economic state, revision fragility and evidence quality answer different questions.

Macrovision Regime Score classifies the economic state; higher readings are more expansionary. Revision Fragility Index qualifies exposure to subsequent data revision; higher readings are more fragile. Lens Confidence describes the completeness and currency of supporting inputs; higher readings indicate stronger evidence. The measures are presented together but are neither averaged nor treated as independent signals.

June 2026 economic state, recent MRS change and evidence qualifications.
Region	Economic state (MRS)	MRS change	Revision fragility (RFI)	Evidence quality
United States	63.00 — Expansionary. The reading is 8.00 points above the 55.00 threshold.	MRS changed −8.00 over 1 month and −8.67 over 3 months.	26.67 — Watch. The reading has 23.33 points of headroom before Fragile.	78.32 — Good. The reading is 8.32 points above Good.
Euro area	61.67 — Expansionary. The reading is 6.67 points above the 55.00 threshold.	MRS changed 0.00 over 1 month and −3.66 over 3 months.	36.17 — Watch for 32 months. The reading has 13.83 points of headroom before Fragile. Endpoint coverage is 85.0%, the lowest of the 6 displayed series, so the reading warrants additional caution.	64.31 — Provisional. The reading is 5.69 points below Good.

Current assessment

The classifications remain positive, but confirmation is weaker and uneven.

The interpretation is conditional. MRS identifies the current classification, recent changes show whether movement confirms that classification, and the evidence measures indicate how much weight the classification can carry. The 6 related series are not converted into independent votes or another composite score. Macrovision Monthly explains the current reconstructed posture and the governed conditions that would change it; the Research Workbench examines historical rarity, persistence and distributions.

Classification

Expansion remains the current classification in both regions.

United States MRS is 8.00 points above the Expansionary threshold; euro-area MRS is 6.67 points above it. Both readings remain above the governed threshold; no persistence beyond the endpoint is implied.

Three-month direction

All 6 monitored readings moved adversely over 3 months.

MRS declined, RFI rose and Lens Confidence fell in both regions.

Binding qualification

Euro-area evidence quality prevents the qualification from clearing.

United States confidence is Good at 78.32. Euro-area confidence is Provisional at 64.31, 5.69 points below Good. The repair condition therefore remains unmet even though both MRS readings are Expansionary.

Boundary monitor

The euro-area state reading has the smaller normalised buffer to a classification threshold.

Threshold margins measure distance from each disclosed classification boundary. A “typical move” is the median absolute month-to-month change over the 60-month reconstruction. The comparison describes scale—not a breach probability, forecast or estimate of time to transition. A high sample percentile does not mean that a threshold has been crossed: percentile rank compares a reading with 60 reconstructed observations, while threshold margin compares it with a governed band boundary.

United States threshold margins

MRS is 8.00 points above Expansionary.

The state margin equals 2.5 typical moves. RFI has 23.33 points of headroom before Fragile, equal to 9.1 typical moves. Confidence is 8.32 points above Good. No United States downgrade, escalation or evidence-failure condition is active at the endpoint.

Euro-area threshold margins

MRS is 6.67 points above Expansionary.

The state margin equals 1.3 typical moves. RFI has 13.83 points of headroom before Fragile, equal to 5.0 typical moves. Confidence is 5.69 points below Good and 14.31 points above the Provisional floor. The state boundary is the closest calculated transition margin, while Provisional confidence prevents the repair condition from clearing.

Direction over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months

Revision fragility rose and confidence fell at every measured horizon.

The table reports raw index-point changes. Higher MRS and confidence are supportive; higher RFI is adverse and is labelled accordingly. The 6 measures share monthly formula-pack calculation receipts and are not statistically independent confirmations.

Raw MRS, RFI and confidence changes across 1, 3, 6 and 12 months.
Horizon	United States change: MRS / RFI / confidence	Euro-area change: MRS / RFI / confidence	Support-oriented breadth (6 readings)	Interpretation
1 month	MRS −8.00; RFI +4.06 (adverse); confidence −4.05.	MRS 0.00; RFI +1.04 (adverse); confidence −4.94.	5 weaker · 1 unchanged.	5 of 6 readings moved adversely; euro-area MRS was unchanged.
3 months	MRS −8.67; RFI +5.00 (adverse); confidence −4.96.	MRS −3.66; RFI +3.22 (adverse); confidence −8.11.	6 weaker.	All 6 readings moved adversely, the broadest weakening across the selected horizons.
6 months	MRS +1.67; RFI +5.82 (adverse); confidence −5.22.	MRS +6.67; RFI +8.59 (adverse); confidence −18.11.	4 weaker · 2 stronger.	MRS improved in both regions, but higher revision fragility and lower confidence weakened confirmation.
12 months	MRS −0.67; RFI +3.92 (adverse); confidence −5.15.	MRS +0.34; RFI +1.03 (adverse); confidence −12.91.	5 weaker · 1 stronger.	5 readings weakened; only euro-area MRS improved.

Conditions that would change the assessment

Five deterministic rules define how the posture may be maintained, repaired, downgraded or suppressed.

These are conditional scenario rules, not predictions. Each rule describes how the descriptive posture would change if the governed band condition were observed; it assigns neither probability nor timing. A canonical issue must bind its own point-in-time evidence and machine-evaluable receipts.

Current position against conditions that maintain, repair or overturn the reconstructed assessment.
Assessment transition	Deterministic condition	Current position	Decision interpretation
Maintain	Both MRS bands remain Expansionary or higher and no escalation condition fires.	Currently met. Both MRS readings remain Expansionary and no escalation boundary has been reached.	Retain the Expansionary classification with its evidence qualification.
Repair	Both RFI bands become Stable and both confidence bands become Good or High.	Not met. Both RFI readings are Watch and euro-area confidence is Provisional.	Clear the evidence qualification.
State downgrade	Either regional MRS band leaves Expansionary.	Not triggered. United States and euro-area MRS remain 8.00 and 6.67 points above the Expansionary threshold.	The current Expansionary description no longer holds.
Fragility escalation	Either RFI band becomes Fragile or Revision-Prone.	Not triggered. United States and euro-area RFI retain 23.33 and 13.83 points of headroom before Fragile.	The revision qualification materially worsens.
Evidence failure	Either confidence band becomes Insufficient.	Not triggered. United States confidence is Good; euro-area confidence is Provisional.	Narrow or suppress the public interpretation.

Permitted uses and evidence limits

The context supports disciplined review, not forecasting, allocation or product claims.

Supported uses rely only on deterministic calculations contained in the frozen context. Unsupported or unauthorised uses require evidence and governance records that do not exist in this reconstruction. A prohibited conclusion must not be inferred from a supported workflow.

Professional uses, status and explicit interpretation boundaries.
Professional use	Status	Permitted conclusion and evidence limit
Current-state briefing	Supported.	Describe the June bands, scores, directional changes and threshold margins. Do not present the reconstruction as an as-published edition.
Boundary scenario design	Supported.	Define conditional threshold events. Do not assign probabilities, timing or expected returns.
Regional evidence triage	Supported.	Prioritise euro-area Provisional confidence and the 85.0% euro-area RFI endpoint coverage. Do not infer causal drivers.
Driver attribution	Not supported.	The context contains 0 public driver records; contribution and causal claims are prohibited.
Forecast or prognosis	Not supported.	No cutoff-valid prognosis or forecast validation exists; future-state and forecast-skill claims are prohibited.
Canonical issue selection	Not authorised.	The parent dataset is reconstructed and has no selection receipt; this context cannot populate a canonical issue.
State-claim or index research	Not supported.	No validated asset-spanning analysis, frozen cross-asset dataset or replication evidence exists; no asset-class or investability claim is permitted.

Publication status and records

The reconstructed decision brief remains separate from publication authority.

No canonical Macrovision Monthly edition has been published. The Latest record owns the controlled schedule, cutoff and approval status; methodology and corrections remain separate public records.

Publication status

No canonical editions have been published.

The latest-edition record contains the scheduled release, governed knowledge cutoff, approval state and publication receipt once issued.

Review publication status

Method and limitations

Definitions precede interpretation.

The publication method discloses evidence selection, formula status, knowledge cutoffs, approval controls and interpretation boundaries.

Review the methodology

Correction record

Published changes remain auditable.

Every correction preserves the original edition and identifies its signed replacement; none is currently recorded.

Review the correction register

Macrovision Monthly is published by YieldGuard Ltd, company number 16914415, registered in England and Wales. The publication is research and decision support, not investment advice, brokerage, custody or discretionary management.